Climate change may lead India to war..

Asia is facing the brunt of
climate change and will see severe stress
on water resources and food-grain
production in the future, increasing the
risk of armed conflict among India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh and China, the latest
report of a UN panel has warned.
UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, in its report assessing impacts of
climate change on human health,
settlements and natural resources released
on Monday, carried a dire warning. "The
worst is yet to come," it said, if no
measures are taken to curb the ill-effects of
global warming.
India, like other developing economies,
may lose up to 1.7% of its Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) if the annual mean
temperature rises by 1 degree Celsius
compared to pre-industrialization level,
hitting the poor the most.
The report also predicts an increase in
extreme weather events such as last year's
flash floods in Uttarakhand and cyclone
Phailin in Odisha if steps are not taken to
control the rise in temperature.
"Nobody on this planet is going to be
untouched by the impacts of climate
change," R K Pachauri, IPCC chairman said
while making the report public in
Yokohama, Japan.
The report says rise in temperatures would
also affect 'beach tourism' in many
countries. India surprisingly stands out as
the most vulnerable among 51 countries
where beach tourism is an important
sector.
Climate change is not just about the future.
The report said people around the world
were already getting hit as it directly
affects livelihoods, reduces food-grain
production, destroys homes and raises food
prices. These trends will accelerate if
climate change is left unchecked.
Among other things, the report warns that
climate change increases the risk of armed
conflict around the world because it
worsens poverty and economic shocks.
"Climate change is already becoming a
determining factor in the national security
policies of states", said a statement issued
by the UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) which has been
working to arrive at a global climate deal
by 2015 to fight the menace effectively
through combined efforts of nations.
Though the report doesn't have country-
specific predictions, its region-wise
findings brought out many eye-opening
conclusions for India.
Aromar Revi, lead author of one of the
chapters of this report, said the impacts of
climate change would be felt severely in
Indo-Gangetic plains, affecting poor people
in the entire region. "The areas which are
facing frequent floods these days may face
drought like situation in the distant or
near future. We cannot ignore the changes
which are taking place either in the Indus
river basin or in Brahmputra river system
over the longer period," said Revi,
explaining the implications of the report in
Delhi.
Another lead author, Surender Kumar,
explained how climate change would affect
the poorer nations. He said if mean
temperatures increased beyond 1 degree C,
it would knock 3% off the GDP of
developing economies.
Key messages from IPCC report
* Coming years will see more extreme
weather events (floods, cyclones, cloud
bursts, unseasonal excessive rains and
drought etc) in most parts of the globe
* Maldives, China, India, Pakistan,
Bangladesh and Sri Lanka will be among
the most affected countries in Asia
* Severe stress on fresh water resources in
South Asia and China (Himalayan river
basins) may become a reason for armed
conflict in the region by middle of the 21st
century
* Climate change may be a determining
factor in national security policies
* Coastal flooding will not only kill people
and cause destruction, it will also affect
tourism in India (like in Goa and Kerala)
* Decline in foodgrain production (wheat
in India/Pakistan and wheat and maize in
China)
* Big coastal cites like Mumbai and Kolkata
will be affected by sea-level rise in 21st
century
* Some fish and other marine animals will
face extinction by 2050, affecting fishing
community
* In many regions, changing precipitation
or melting snow and ice are altering
hydrological systems, affecting water
resources in terms of quantity and quality
* Glaciers (including Himalayan) continue
to shrink almost worldwide due to climate
change, affecting run-off and water
resources downstream
* Climate change will impact human
health mainly by exacerbating health
problems that already exist.